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A Mixed Year for Asian Residential Property in 2006, According to Global Property Guide

July 26th, 2010
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A Mixed Year for Asian Residential Property in 2006, According to Global Property Guide

The winners: Singapore, South Korea and the Philippines

Singapore experienced Asia’s highest residential property price increases during 2006, with 9.5% real (inflation-adjusted) house price rises.

There were also 9.3% real house price increases in South Korea, and 9.1% real house price increases in the Philippines. These were seen in the Global Property Guide House Price Indices, the biggest collection of residential property price indices.

Singapore’s strong 2006 GDP growth rate, at 7.9%, pushed up demand for Singapore property. The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) private residential property price index rose by 10% (9.5% in real terms) in 2006.

South Korea also saw a strong rebound in property prices, despite continued efforts by the government to depress the market. The Kookmin Bank’s house price index rose 11.6% in Dec. 2006 (9.3% in real terms) from a year earlier.

In the Philippines, strong economic growth and reduced inflation contributed to the continued recovery of the real estate sector. In addition, demand from Overseas Filipino Workers (OFWs) and dual citizens has been strong, pushing prices up. Luxury condominium prices in the Philippines rose 15% (9% in real terms) in 2006, following an 11% nominal price rise in 2005, according to Colliers International.

Japan and Hong Kong are laggards

Japan’s residential property market continued to fall in 2006, despite repeated attempts by the media to portray the market as rallying. Nevertheless, the residential urban land price index registered a smaller fall in 2006 (-2.8%) compared to last year (-4.7%).

Hong Kong’s property market turned negative (-2.13%) in 2006, after impressive gains in 2004 (27%) and 2005 (8%). Higher interest rates in the US, mirrored directly in Hong Kong, were a major cause of the downturn.

Taiwan’s messy political crisis seems to have frozen residential prices, with 0% appreciation during 2006. In real terms, Taiwan experienced a decline in house prices during 2006 (-1.7%). During three years prior to the second quarter of 2006, Taiwan’s Sinyi house price index rose 17%.

In Malaysia, house prices did not to keep pace with inflation. Malaysian house prices today are at the same level as 1995, in real terms.

Thailand saw the end of ending its strong post-Asian crisis property market recovery, as the political crisis impacted the economy. House prices moved up just 1.9% in 2006 (-2.4% in real terms), after 2005’s price increase of 7% (1.5% in real terms), and 2004’s rise of 9% (6% in real terms).

Indonesia managed to reduce 4Q 2006 inflation to 6% from 16% during the first three quarters. With the house price index registering a 6.6% increase in 2006; house prices rose by 0.5% in real terms.

The 2007 elections – risks abound

2007 is an election year in Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines, and political uncertainty is likely to increase. There will also be elections in Japan and Hong Kong, but they are unlikely to have much impact on the real estate market. In Thailand, uncertainty will increase if elections are not called.

The Philippines. A victory for President Arroyo’s party in the upcoming Congressional elections would be positive for real estate. Election years in the Philippines bring money inflows, but also increased uncertainty. But if Arroyo wins enough seats in Congress she will push constitutional change, removing constitutional limits on foreign ownership of real estate and companies – good for real estate.

South Korea. The economic interventionism of left-of-center President Roh Moo-hyun has been damaging for Korea’s housing market. His support is crumbling, and a less interventionist president may be elected in December. But even if the opposition Grand National Party wins, excessive government intervention in the housing market has a very long history in South Korea.

Taiwan. Parliamentary elections at end-2007 will provide a strong lead on whether the Kuomintang (KMT) can regain control of the presidency in 2008 from the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). President Chen Shui-bian’s two terms have largely been spent on keeping him from being ousted. Significant banking and tax reforms have been held hostage by politics.

Japan. Half of the seats in the upper house will be contested in July. Seats held by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) may be reduced, risking its reform agenda. These seats were won with the help of former prime minister and popular reformist Junichiro Koizumi.

Hong Kong. Donald Tsang is up for re-election as chief executive where elections are still largely ceremonial and Beijing’s anointment is the only significant factor. Pro-democracy campaigners are hoping and pushing for reforms to full democracy and Mr. Tsang’s failure to push for constitutional reforms in 2005 means that this will be his last term.

Thailand. The sooner elections are called, and Thailand is returned to democracy, the better it will be for the property market and the economy as a whole. The fate of Thailand’s property market hinges on the junta. If the junta prolongs military rule, the market will suffer.

The Global Property Guide sees inflation risks to be minimal in Asia in 2006. But other risks threaten the real estate market, particularly the re-emergence of bird flu in several countries, Indonesia in particular.

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2006: Best U.S. Cities To Buy Real Estate And Homes

October 2nd, 2009
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Eager to know the top cites in America where one can safely invest? Here are the best real estate markets in the entire country according to a recent report from Business 2.0 Magazine. The November 2006 edition of the magazine lists the top ten cities that are ideal to buy a home. These are – Panama City and Vero Beach in Florida, Bridgeport in Connecticut, Lakeland in Florida, McAllen in Texas, San Luis Obispo in California, Wilmington in North Carolina, Manchester in New Hampshire, Fort Collins in Colorado and Atlanta in Georgia. The report cites the appreciation rates of home prices projected over a period of five years.

Florida enjoys the status of having three of the top four cities to invest in. Panama City, which tops the list of best places to buy real estate is expected to have a real estate appreciation of 72% over the next five years. Major real estate development projects such as the building of a new airport and low property prices are expected to boost the economy and the housing market.

Vero Beach, projected to have an appreciation of 64%, comes second for its excellent weather, low property taxes and a lower cost of living. Lakeland, with a 59% projected gain in home prices is a tempting option with homes selling for a fifth less than the national median price.

Buying a home in Bridgeport, CT is a bargain now with median home prices at a very low $280,000 compared to the rest of the Fairfield County. Home prices in McAllen, TX which holds the fifth place, are expected to soar by 57%.

It is estimated that homes in the McAllen, TX area may appreciate 57 percent with an increase in the median home price from $70,000 to $109,000.

Homeowners making an investment in San Luis Obispo, California, today, are expected to get a good appreciation (40%) on their homes over the next five years.

The median home price in Wilmington, NC is expected to increase to $297,000 by 2011, up from the current price of $217,000, an increase by 37%.

Manchester, NH, which has twice been rated as the ‘best place to live’ in America by Money Magazine, sits at eighth place with an expected appreciation of 35%.

Fort Collins and Atlanta follow in the ninth and tenth places of top cities for real estate investment in the USA. Fort Collins, one of the most popular cities in America, has been ranked as the ‘No.1 small city’ this year by Money Magazine. Recent price reductions in the housing market makes ‘now’ the best time to buy a home or condo in this city with an estimated property appreciation of 28%. Atlanta is poised for a significant appreciation too with an expected rise of up to 24% in home prices over the next five years.

So, if you are a prospective homebuyer set to take a plunge into any of the top ten real estate markets, it is the right time to enlist the services of a good real estate agent who can guide you through the complicated home buying process.

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2006: U.S. Cities With Overvalued Real Estate And Home Prices

September 27th, 2009
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Buying a home is a big-time real estate investment and has to be done with great prudence. Knowing where not to buy a home is as important as are the dos and don’ts of buying a home.

Of the many top ten lists on CNNMoney.com, there is listed the top ten overvalued cities in America where it is better not to buy a home for the next two years or so. The report states a variety of reasons for the unfavorable market conditions.

Five cities in California – Bakersfield, Fresno, Merced, Sacramento and Stockton, figure among the top ten cities that have the least possibility of home price appreciation. Home prices have reached a new high (by nearly 60%) in these areas over the past two years. With an economy driven by agriculture and relatively higher unemployment rates anticipated for that area, the real estate market is predicted to slump in the region.

Although three cities in Florida are recommended as good real estate buys, the report also cites four others in Southwest Florida that fall among the very bottom of the list. With home prices here expected to plummet very soon, cities like Fort Myers, Naples, Punta Gorda and Sarasota are those that one would do best to avoid for a year’s time or so, while buying a home or a condo.

Market prices are expected to decline in the Jersey Shore (New Jersey) area that saw a radical boom in the last two quarters. Although home prices in the third quarter have rebounded from the slight drop during the second quarter, the bubble is expected to burst soon and the overpriced market is likely to stabilize. The popular seaside cities of New Jersey, Atlantic City and Ocean city are anticipated to fall under the unfavorable list.

In Phoenix, Arizona, a hot favorite among investors last year, sliding home prices may to be an unavoidable occurrence in the next 12 months. With home prices dropping by more than $100,000 in some residential developments and investors trying to sell off their property, it is safer to wait for a year or longer before investing here.

Economists at Moody’s Economy.com also predict a sharp decline in Riverside and San Bernardino counties, California’s Inland Empire.

The bottom ten cities that are likely to see major drops in median home prices during the coming year are Stockton, (leading the list with a predicted fall of 9.7%), Merced, Reno/Sparks, Fresno, Vallejo/Fairfield, Las Vegas, Bakersfield, Sacramento, Washington, D.C and Tucson.

Given these fluctuating real estate market conditions, one should exercise a great deal of caution when investing in real estate. It makes sense to get the expert advice of a real estate agent to advise you about your next home purchase, since agents often have access to the most up-to-date real estate market data and neighborhood pricing trends.

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Central San Diego Real Estate Market – Mid Year Snapshot Of Median Prices (2006) – Single Family Homes

July 19th, 2009
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Central San Diego Real Estate Market – Mid Year Snapshot of Median Prices (2006) – Single Family Homes

As of this writing, the San Diego real estate markets appears to have shifted from one that favors sellers to one that favors buyers. However, this premise may not hold true for all communities within San Diego, as median prices for some communities continue to rise while others fall.

While there are many metrics to evaluate the real estate pricing trends of a community, one commonly used parameter is to evaluate the median price of homes from one point in time against a prior point of time. The median price reflects the point at which half the homes are above a particular price point, and half the homes are below a particular price point. The median price metric provides one method to analyze the direction of home prices, but should not be used as the sole source of data from which to form conclusions.

The data below is a comparison of median prices for various communities in central San Diego County, comparing data from June 2005 against data for June 2006. This information is only one metric at a particular point in time, and other metrics or data from future months may support or dispute the pricing trends noted below. For some of the San Diego communities presented below, very few homes sold during June 2006, which diminishes the usefulness of the median price metric.

COMMUNITIES WITH INCREASES IN MEDIAN PRICE – SINGLE FAMILY HOMES – JUNE 2006

The data below pertains only to the sales of single-family homes, and does not include condominiums or townhomes. The data is organized by the magnitude of change in median price, with the highest change in median price presented first.

For the Coronado real estate market, the median price was $1,775,000, which represents a 14.7% increase from the same time last year. Approximately 15 homes sold in June 2006 (21 homes sold in June 2005).

For the Point Loma real estate market, the median price was $1,024,068, which represents an 11.4% increase from the same time last year. Approximately 20 homes sold in June 2006 (14 homes sold in June 2005).

For the University City (UTC) real estate market, the median price was $780,000, which represents a 10.6% increase from the same time last year. Approximately 5 homes sold in June 2006 (19 homes sold in June 2005).

For the La Jolla real estate market, the median price was $1,692,500, which represents a 10.3% increase from the same time last year. Approximately 28 homes sold in June 2006 (38 homes sold in June 2005).

For the Logan Heights real estate market, the median price was $425,000, which represents a 7.6% increase from the same time last year. Approximately 13 homes sold in June 2006 (14 homes sold in June 2005).

For the Paradise Hills real estate market, the median price was $507,500, which represents a 5.7% increase from the same time last year. Approximately 8 homes sold in June 2006 (16 homes sold in June 2005).

For the Mission Hills real estate market, the median price was $927,500, which represents a 3.1% increase from the same time last year. Approximately 11 homes sold in June 2006 (12 homes sold in June 2005).

For the Scripps Ranch (Scripps Miramar) real estate market, the median price was $759,250, which represents a 2.8% increase from the same time last year. Approximately 34 homes sold this month (43 homes sold in June 2005).

For the San Carlos real estate market, the median price was $563,000, which represents a 2.4% increase from the same time last year. Approximately 12 homes sold in June 2006 (16 homes sold in June 2005).

For the Del Cerro real estate market, the median price was $557,500, which represents a 2.1% increase from the same time last year. Approximately 13 homes sold in June 2006 (30 homes sold in June 2005).

For the Normal Heights real estate market, the median price was $676,250, which represents a 1.7% increase from the same time last year. Approximately 20 homes sold in June 2006 (19 homes sold in June 2005).

COMMUNITIES WITH DECREASES IN MEDIAN PRICE – SINGLE FAMILY HOMES – JUNE 2006

The data below pertains only to the sales of single-family homes, and does not include condominiums or townhomes. The data is organized by the magnitude of change in median price, with the highest change in median price presented first.

For the Old Town real estate market, the median price was $580,000, which was a 19.1% decline from the same time last year. Approximately 5 homes sold in June 2006 (14 homes sold in June 2005).

For the Golden Hill real estate market, the median price was $451,000, which was a 16.4% decline from the same time last year. Approximately 10 homes sold in June 2006 (13 homes sold in June 2005).

For the Pacific Beach real estate market, the median price was $851,960, which represents a 14.8% decline from the same time last year. Approximately 15 homes sold in June 2006 (19 homes sold in June 2005).

For the Tierrasanta real estate market, the median price was $570,000, which represents a 12.6% decline from the same time last year. Approximately 9 homes sold in June 2006 (17 homes sold in June 2005).

For the North Park real estate market, the median price was $560,000, which represents a 9.7% decline from the same time last year. Approximately 31 homes sold in June 2006 (16 homes sold in June 2005).

For the College Grove real estate market, the median price was $475,000, which represents a 5.9% decline from the same time last year. Approximately 38 homes sold in June 2006 (40 homes sold in June 2005).

For the City Heights real estate market, the median price was $390,00, which represents a 5.3% decline from the same time last year. Approximately 17 homes sold in June 2006 (30 homes sold in June 2005).

For the Mira Mesa real estate market, the median price was $510,000, which represents a 4.7% decline from the same time last year. Approximately 45 homes sold in June 2006 (47 homes sold in June 2005).

For the Linda Vista real estate market, the median price was $510,000, which represents a 4.2% decline from the same time last year. Approximately 16 homes sold in June 2006 (17 homes sold in June 2005).

For the Mission Valley real estate market, the median price was $510,000, which represents a 3.8% decline from the same time last year. Approximately 7 homes sold in June 2006 (18 homes sold in June 2005).

For the Encanto real estate market, the median price was $435,000, which represents a 3.3% decline from the same time last year. Approximately 36 homes sold in June 2006 (47 homes sold in June 2005).

For the Clairemont real estate market, the median price was $555,000, which represents a 2.6% decline from the same time last year. Approximately 30 homes sold in June 2006 (34 homes sold in June 2005).

For the Sorrento Valley real estate market, the median price was $861,000, which represents a 1% decline from the same time last year. Approximately 6 homes sold in June 2006 (5 homes sold in June 2005).

ADVISORY

Homebuyers and home sellers should keep in mind that the data above is simply a snapshot in time, and is not conclusive of the pricing trends for any community. For some communities presented above, very few homes were sold during June 2006, which makes the use of the median price metric of limited value. The data must be evaluated over a longer duration, and involve multiple metrics to fully understand enduring market trends. Contact your Realtor to obtain information about enduring market trends for any given community.

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